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    Archived pages: 350 . Archive date: 2012-11.

  • Title: Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning
    Descriptive info: .. About.. Tools and Data.. Methods.. Projects.. Resources.. Exploring our future in a changing Arctic.. contact.. |.. blog.. Climate Visualizations.. SNAP is striving to implement useful climate data visualizations that make sense.. The new map tool, with its iteractive titles, forms the basis for future data and mapping enhancements.. open the map.. Your Community.. Change affects people and communities.. Our Community Charts tool allows you to look at how temperature and precipitation regimes will be altered over the next 100 years, across Alaska and Western Canada.. explore charts.. SNAP Collaborations.. Collaborating with others is a large reason SNAP is able to succeed and produce some of the most useful projections of future conditions across the Arctic.. read more.. Climate Change in Forested Ecosystems.. A new report summarizes evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems.. Landscape Connectivity.. Utilizing climate projection data from SNAP, the Connecting Alaska Landscapes into the Future Project used selected species to identify areas of  ...   SNAP.. We develop plausible.. scenarios.. of future conditions through a diverse and varied.. network.. of people and organizations, which allow better.. planning.. for the uncertain future of Alaska and the Arctic.. What we do.. SNAP is all.. about.. helping people plan in a changing climate.. We work with a wide range of partners and.. collaborators.. on many.. projects.. to explore a range of possible futures based on the best scientific knowledge and.. data.. available.. SNAP also strives to make our.. resources.. available and our.. methods.. known.. SNAP has a strong partnership with.. ACCAP.. that allows us to leverage each other's strengths in order to inform a broad audience.. Follow us.. facebook.. twitter.. flickr.. terms of use.. V1.. 0.. 15.. Copyright 2012.. Scenarios Network for Alaska Arctic Planning.. , a research institute of the.. University of Alaska Fairbanks.. UAF is an affirmative action/equal opportunity employer and educational institution.. 3352 College Road, Fairbanks AK 99709.. nlfresco@alaska.. edu | tel 907.. 474.. 2405 | fax 907.. 7151..

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  • Title: SNAP: About
    Descriptive info: People.. Collaborators.. Outreach.. F.. A.. Q.. Logos.. Sustainability.. SNAP’s diverse team works on a wide array of projects at our College Road office – and further afield, too.. From the start, much of the work behind SNAP’s products has taken place far from our headquarters at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF).. We rely on the expertise of scientists throughout the UA system, as well as researchers at state and federal agencies and non-profits.. Our data are derived from climate models created at scientific centers around the world, and we benefit from the input of individuals at the local and community level.. Climate change planning is not a single field of endeavor.. It encompasses atmospheric and geophysical sciences, biological sciences, and social sciences.. Weighing choices often requires expertise in economics, or knowledge of cultural preferences.. SNAP’s  ...   The idea of developing a scenario planning process for Alaska emerged in 2006 from discussions by an interdisciplinary group of about a dozen faculty members at the University of Alaska.. The consensus of that group was that such a process would be feasible and would be one of the most useful ways that University of Alaska researchers could convey the societal significance of their research to Alaskan decision-makers and other stakeholders.. Understanding current and future trajectories of climate and other variables helps to develop credible projections which advise policy and management across Alaska and the Arctic.. SNAP was launched in 2007, with Dr.. Scott Rupp as Network Director, and a three-person staff.. In the past four years, SNAP has grown from a single-room effort to a bustling office of over 30 researchers, programmers, students and staff..

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  • Title: SNAP: Data Downloads
    Descriptive info: Download Data.. Map Tool.. Community Charts.. All SNAP.. ,.. models.. , and.. project results.. are freely available to the public.. We do our best to provide data in formats that are accessible to a wide range of users.. Currently, all of our data are available for download as GeoTIFF  ...   and download via our web-based.. and our.. page.. Download projected and historical datasets in the GeoTIFF format for your own research purposes.. Visually browse and compare scenarios created from SNAP data using the interactive.. map tool.. Investigate temperature and precipitation projections for thousands of communities across Alaska and Canada..

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  • Title: SNAP: Methods
    Descriptive info: Downscaling.. Modeling.. Planning.. Uncertainty.. SNAP employs a variety of modeling and research methods that have been approved by the scientific community through large-scale research programs and peer-reviewed.. publications.. In order to make global climate data useful for.. , SNAP.. downscales.. global model outputs to the local level.. SNAP selects the 5.. Global Climate Models.. (GCM) that.. perform best.. in Alaska and the Arctic.. Outputs from these models are then.. downscaled.. using.. PRISM.. data which accounts for land features such as slope, elevation, and proximity to coastlines as baseline climate data.. This same downscaling procedure is applied to historical.. Climate Research Unit.. (CRU) data.. The final products are high resolution monthly climate data for ~1901-2100 for Alaska and large regions of Canada.. Where PRISM data are not available, GCM and historical data are downscaled to other baseline climate datasets such as.. CRU.. data  ...   and the world.. Our principal products are downscaled historical and projected monthly climate data, primarily temperature and precipitation.. Projected data are produced for three.. emission scenarios.. (B1, A1B, A2).. Additionally, SNAP produces derived data from the above base datasets through various.. modeling.. efforts.. Derived data products include potential evapotranspiration, vegetation, fire, permafrost, day of freeze, day of thaw, the subsequent length of growing season, as well as decadal, seasonal and annual averages.. For a full list of our available data, please visit the SNAP.. Data.. To explore the data with an interactive map, please visit the.. As with any data, analysis or interpretation, multiple sources of.. uncertainty.. are always present.. Understanding the uncertainty inherent in the input and output data can help in determining how these climate projections are best utilized and interpreted.. For additional details on SNAP Methods, please explore our.. sections..

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  • Title: SNAP: Projects
    Descriptive info: Learn about all of SNAP s projects below.. Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM).. The Wilderness Society and SNAP are collaborating to merge several existing models into a single, integrated model that simulate vegetation succession.. Alaska-Canada Climate-Biome Shift.. Partners in Alaska and Canada are working with SNAP to use clustering methodology to model climate-biome shifts in Alaska, the Yukon, and the Northwest Territories.. ALFRESCO and habitat research projects.. Boreal ALFRESCO simulates the responses of subarctic and boreal vegetation to climatic changes.. Arctic Sea Ice: Satellite Observations, GCM Performance, and Future Scenarios.. This project investigates the downward trend of Arctic Sea Ice through the use of satellite observations and climate model projections.. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Forested Ecosystems of Alaska.. This assessment will provide an overview of current and future climate change impacts on all forested regions of Alaska.. Chugach Climate Change Scenarios Planning.. UAA-ISER and UAF-SNAP are working with Chugach National Forest and USFS to project ecological and socioeconomic effects of climate change in the Chugach Region.. Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability in Alaska.. The Wilderness Society has used SNAP data and assistance to assess potential future impacts on water availability statewide.. Climate Change Scenario Planning for Alaska Region National Park System Units.. NPS Alaska park managers use SNAP climate projections, scenarios planning, and input from stakeholders to help inform decisions.. Climate Change Summary Reports of National Parks, Preserves, and Monuments.. SNAP has assisted the Wilderness Society in creating summary reports describing potential future temperature and precipitation changes.. Governor s Subcabinet on Climate Change.. SNAP is assisting the Governor s Sub-Cabinet  ...   The Nature Conservancy to provide down-scaled IPCC projections for the Alaska North Slope Borough.. North Slope GIS Planning Tool.. The goal of this proposal is to form a partnership of organizations to develop a spatially-explicit model to help managers forecast infrastructure needs and potential conflicts.. NPR-A Climate Change Analysis.. An assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation, water availability, vegetation, and fire regime in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPR-A).. Permafrost Dynamics Modeling in Alaska using a High Spatial Resolution Dataset.. SNAP and UAF researchers are mapping projected permafrost changes in Alaska using downscaled projections from five IPCC GCMs.. Seward Peninsula-Nulato Hills-Kotzebue Sound Lowlands Rapid Ecoregional Assessment.. Rapid Ecoregional Assessments aim to synthesize existing knowledge and information applicable to all lands and waters within the ecoregion.. Sitka Hydropower.. SNAP is using climate projections to determine if Southeast Alaska is facing a regime shift that might alter hydropower electricity availability.. Social-Ecological Characteristics of Disturbance: Linked interactions between spruce bark beetle, humans, and wildfire in Alaska.. Amplified climate change effects at high latitudes are altering wildfires and epidemic spruce bark beetle infestations.. Statewide Landscape Connectivity.. The goal of this effort is sustaining landscape level biodiversity in AK by ensuring connectivity into the future given climate change.. USGS Land Cover Change Study.. The US Geological Survey and SNAP are collaborating to project future land cover changes to habitat suitability for key species in Alaska.. Yukon Water Availability Analysis.. With the aid of modeling expertise from the Wilderness Society, SNAP projected the future balance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the Yukon, Canada..

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  • Title: SNAP: Resources
    Descriptive info: Learn about all of SNAP s resources below.. Presentations.. ALFRESCO Model Overview.. Time-sequence maps of statewide SNAP climate projections.. Reports.. Alaska Statewide Projections.. Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report.. Connecting Alaska Landscapes into the Future - Final Report.. GIPL-1 Permafrost Dynamics Model.. Preliminary Report to Governor s Sub-cabinet on Climate Change.. Presentation of an overview of SNAP and SNAP climate products.. Presentation of SNAP climate projections for Southeast Alaska.. Projected Climate Change Scenarios for Alaska National Parks, Monuments, Preserves & Wildlife Refuges.. Projected climate change scenarios for BLM Eastern Interior Management Area.. SNAP Climate Projections: Tools for Planners.. Validating SNAP climate models.. Videos.. Climate Change and Great Bear Lake.. David McGuire.. The Effects of Changing Soil Carbon on Ecosystem Services in Interior Alaska..  ...   Anthony.. Methane Emissions From Thermokarst Lakes.. Katherine Hayhoe.. High Resolution Climate Projections.. Sue Mauger.. Salmon Stream Temperatures: Past, Present and Future.. Papers.. A standardized framework for evaluating the skill of regional climate downscaling techniques, Katherine Hayhoe Dissertation.. Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now?.. Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems.. Geographic patterns and dynamics of Alaskan climate interpolated from a sparse station record.. Global Climate Model Performance over Alaska and Greenland (Walsh et al.. 2008).. Interpolation methods for climate data.. Linking climate change modeling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modeling.. Sensitivity of Simulated Boreal Fire Dynamics to Uncertainties in Climate Drivers (Rupp et al.. 2007)..

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  • Title: SNAP: People
    Descriptive info: The People of SNAP.. Get contact information for individuals below.. Don't know who you're looking for?.. SNAP Leaders.. Scott Rupp.. SNAP Director, Professor.. Sarah Trainor.. SNAP Stakeholder Liaison, Research Faculty.. Nancy Fresco.. SNAP Coordinator, Research Faculty.. SNAP Staff.. John Bailey.. Research Faculty.. Carson Baughman.. Graduate Student.. Alec Bennett.. Model Programmer.. Amy Breen.. Post Doctoral Fellow.. Todd Brinkman.. Bruce Crevensten.. Web Programmer.. Keith Cunningham.. Winslow Hansen.. Katie Kennedy.. Education and Outreach Coordinator.. Piia Kortsalo.. Research Intern.. Lena Krutikov..  ...   Michael Lindgren.. Spatial Analyst.. Stephanie McAfee.. Jen Northway.. Alaska Fire Science Consortium Coordinator.. Mark Olson.. Dustin Rice.. System Administrator.. Tracy Rogers.. Research Professional.. Jennifer Schmidt.. Julien Schroder.. Student Intern.. Anna Springsteen.. GIS Modeler.. Nicole Swenson.. Kristin Timm.. Science Communicator.. Jane Wolken.. Contact Us!.. Topic.. Becoming a SNAP collaborator.. Our website (report issues, questions about usage).. ALFRESCO fire simulation model.. Technical data questions.. General inquiry.. SNAP hiring or management.. Your name.. Your email address.. Subject line.. Message.. Send Email..

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  • Title: SNAP: Maps
    Descriptive info: currently viewing.. Print.. Link.. X.. Link:.. View Metadata.. Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning.. snap.. uaf.. edu.. 7151..

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  • Title: SNAP: Community Charts
    Descriptive info: To load a chart, type your community s name:.. Data Set.. Temperature.. Precipitation.. Emissions Scenario.. Low (B1).. Medium (A1B).. High (A2).. About scenarios.. Inter Model Variability.. Off.. On.. About inter model variability.. SNAP has created charts for communities in the area shown above.. In cooperation with:.. Export.. Interpreting the Community Charts.. SNAP community charts can be examined for certain key changes and threshold values.. Higher mean monthly temperatures in the spring and fall may be of particular interest.. This could signify a longer growing season, a loss of ice and/or frozen ground needed for travel or food storage, or a shift in precipitation from snow to rain, which impacts water storage capacity and surface water availability.. Warmer, drier spring weather may also be an indicator for increased fire risk.. In many locations, winter temperatures are projected to increase dramatically.. Warmer winters may allow for the growth of species that are less cold-hardy (including both desirable crops and invasive species), or it may decrease snowpack and increase the frequency of rain-on-snow events that impact wildlife.. Higher temperatures across all seasons will likely impact permafrost and land-fast ice.. How the Community Charts Were Derived.. Information for each community is based on the closest 2 km by 2 km pixel from SNAP's datasets.. The charts show historical PRISM climatology data and downscaled outputs averaged from five Global Climate Models (GCMs).. Results are also averaged across decades.. This averaging lessens the influence of normal year-to-year climate variability on projected values, and tends to make overall projection trends clearer.. It is important to note that.. is associated with each of these graphed values.. Uncertainty stems from the modeling of atmospheric and oceanic movements used to create GCMs, from the PRISM.. downscaling.. process, and from the assumptions made regarding greenhouse gas levels for each emissions scenario.. Standard deviation of precipitation between the  ...   projections, please explore our.. section.. High resolution image for print.. Download high-resolution PNG (600 dpi, 10" wide).. Low resolution image for web.. Download low-resolution PNG (800 350px).. Vector format for posters (SVG).. Programs such as Adobe Illustrator, GIMP, and ImageMagick are needed to work with this file format.. Download SVG (resolution independent).. Processing image for export.. Your download should begin shortly.. High resolution PNG images can take up to a minute to process on the server before the download begins.. If you experience problems, please.. let us know.. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change created a range of scenarios to explore alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of demographic, economic and technological driving forces and resulting greenhouse gas emissions.. Emissions leveling and declining (B1).. The B1 scenario describes a convergent world, with the same global population as A1B, but with more rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy.. Mid-range emissions (A1B).. The A1B scenario assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid century, rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies, and a balance between fossil fuels and other energy sources.. Rapid increases in emissions (A2).. The A2 scenario describes a very heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow economic development and slow technological change.. Model variability refers to the standard deviation (SD), which provides a measure of dispersion around the mean.. The vertical bars represent the SD across the five models.. Their lengths represent one SD above and below this value.. A small SD indicates the models are in relative agreement, whereas a large SD suggests choice of model is relatively important.. Drawing inferences from overlapping or non-overlapping bars is discouraged.. The only comparison to make is of their relative size, as it pertains to changes in the degree of agreement among the models..

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  • Title: SNAP: Collaborators
    Descriptive info: Collaborations with the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.. Geological Survey, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, multiple non-profit organizations, and many others have yielded scenario projections of shifting ecosystems that will aid in planning future resource, land, and wildlife management.. A variety of SNAP services and approaches make information accessible to a wide spectrum of stakeholders with varying levels of technical expertise.. SNAP continues to build a powerful collaborative network of key scientific, social and economic institutions from around the world, applying the combined expertise towards a better understanding of the future dynamics of the Arctic.. Contact.. us if you are interested in joining the SNAP network.. Alaska Center for Climate Assessment Policy.. Fairbanks, AK USA.. go to their website.. ACCAP and SNAP have formed an important partnership in assessing the current state and future of conditions in Alaska.. Since 2008, SNAP has teamed up with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment Policy (.. ) to provide Alaskans with the climate change science and understanding required to effectively plan for the future and the inherent uncertainties of what lies ahead.. This collaborative approach has not only yielded significant benefit for Alaska stakeholders, but has also enabled SNAP and ACCAP to leverage resources to the benefit of both organizations while preserving programmatic independence.. SNAP and ACCAP collaborate on multiple projects that are currently funded through the next 3 5 years.. These projects help to: (1) strengthen collaborative ties between the two programs, which increases leveraging power, and (2) build capacity to develop, analyze, and communicate climate change data, research, and information.. Recent Project Collaborations.. Alaska Department of Fish Game.. Juneau, AK USA.. Alaska Fire Science Consortium.. SNAP and ACCAP have joined forces to support and collaborate with The Alaska Fire Science Consortium at UAF.. It is one of eight national science delivery consortia to receive funding from the Joint Fire Science Program to provide a conduit for research to get into the hands of fire and land managers.. Alaska North Slope Borough.. Barrow, AK USA.. Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative.. Anchorage, AK USA.. The Arctic Landscape Conservation Collaborative (ALCC) supports conservation in the arctic by providing applied science and tools to land managers and policy makers.. Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of 24 public-private partnerships throughout the US that provide shared science to ensure the sustainability of America s land, water, wildlife and cultural resources.. The geographic scope of the Arctic LCC ranges across North America from Alaska to Labrador.. The Alaska portion encompasses three eco-regions: the Brooks Range, the Arctic Foothills, and the Arctic Coastal Plain.. The conservation goals of the Arctic  ...   conserve them.. As a non-profit organization, DUC relies on the support of Canadians from across the country.. DUC s dedicated volunteers, members and staff work very hard to help DUC in achieving its conservation mission and vision.. Fairbanks North Star Borough.. Geographic Information Network of Alaska.. The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) receives and manages spatial data from satellites and other sources.. This incoming data is used to create real-time, high-resolution maps of the Arctic.. Geophysical Institute.. Government of the Northwest Territories.. Yellowknife, NT Canada.. Government of Yukon.. Whitehorse, YT Canada.. The Yukon Territory s Climate Change Secretariat leads the government-wide leadership and coordination on Yukon s response to climate change.. This includes implementation of the Climate Change Action Plan, streamlining Yukon's climate change related partnerships with Canada, First Nations, Yukon College and others, as well as coordinating activities and participation on climate change both at the regional and national level.. The are committed to developing climate change policies and strategies with particular focus on research, development and impacts and adaptations resulting from the impacts of climate change.. Institute of Arctic Biology.. International Arctic Research Center.. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.. National Park Service.. Northwestern Interior Forest Landscape Conservation Cooperative.. School of Natural Resources Agricultural Science.. The Nature Conservancy.. Arlington, VA USA.. The Nature Conservancy is the leading conservation organization working around the world to protect ecologically important lands and waters for nature and people.. The State of Alaska.. The Wilderness Society.. UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research.. The Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Alaska Anchorage has been at the forefront of public policy research in Alaska for half a century.. ISER s multidisciplinary staff studies virtually all the major public policy issues Alaska faces.. That work helps Alaskans better understand the state s changing economy and population and the challenges and opportunities that come with change.. University of Alaska Geography Program.. US Department of the Interior.. The Interior Department, including the USGS, has joined forces with UAF to form the The Alaska Climate Science Center (CSC) which is the first of eight regional climate science centers to be established in the United States.. Its purpose is to establish a partnership between agency and university to bring together climate science and resource management.. Recent collaborations include.. The Alaska Climate Center.. US Fish Wildlife.. US Forest Service.. US Geological Survey.. Reston, VA USA.. Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative.. The Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) promotes coordination, dissemination, and development of applied science to inform landscape level conservation, including terrestrial-marine linkages, in the face of landscape scale stressors, focusing on climate change.. Yukon College..

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  • Title: SNAP: Resources
    Descriptive info: View Other Resources.. Paper.. The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.. g.. , carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems.. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of climate-change impacts on all forested ecosystems of Alaska, highlighting changes in the most critical biophysical factors of each region.. Downloads.. Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems.. (7.. 33 MB)..

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  • Archived pages: 350